Market Analysis: To prove or disprove the fear
After reading a lot and hearing enough of the doomsday predictions from everyone from people to people named after Po-... We'll save that for another time actually. So let's put this issue to rest the only way that we can all agree on: With actual facts, a bit of scientific research, and a community effort that some say is incapable of fixing things ourselves.
So how do we do this? The way those of us with a bit of education and some curiosity do things: Analysis.
Here's the starting hypothesis: I believe the market impacts from the fatigue removal system will be minor at worst, and nonexistant at best.
How do we test this hypothesis? Quite simple, actually. First of all, we'll be using 2 items that are heavily in demand and will give us our constant across servers as well as items that are a bit less consistant just for comparisons sake. EB2(Enchant Booster II) and QAS(Quality Assurance Stamps) will be our 'constants' that we'll be testing with. For additional comparison, the prices of eye items like SoD(Dark Command) or Tiamat/Irina can also be compared.
'But we don't need any research! JP EB2s cost 14m and NA EB2s cost only 2m!' I hear. This is a shallow minded argument, so please get it out of your head if you were thinking it. The value of malek boxes as well as numerous other variables make this a bit more complicated than just using a direct price comparison. So how will we get actual, valid numbers to compare?
We will use a few simple comparisons across all 4 servers. NA, EU, JP, and KR.
-The actual currency obtained from leveling/story questing 1-70, or 1-75. This means only counting the raw currency provided from quests, dungeon runs, and from NPC sellables like coins, statues, malek boxes.
-The 'market' currency obtained from server-specific values of consistent, easy sells like EB2s or QAS obtained from the story/leveling process
-The amount of currency/materials obtained from running a full set of daily, non-boss Tia runs, the 'Horror' and 'Terror' levels on each side of the map
With these values, we can see exactly how much one can expect to make from the leveling process, both in raw currency and and materials obtained. Then it's simply a matter of comparing how many EB2/QAS we can expect to obtain total from both the leveling process or from farming a fairly common set of daily runs. We compare this across all servers, and then we'll have our answer. Is the actual differences between the economies as extreme as some say? Has the introduction of no-fatigue really altered the economy that much?
I've taken the first step in this process by monitoring the economy on our own servers for the past week and putting the info into a spreadsheet, which I'll be making public on Google Docs once we get a bit more info. I'll also be using the Violet release in a couple of days to get the exact values I listed above for the amount of currency/valuables one can expect to make for the three comparisons. At the same time, I'll continue to watch the economy after the patch hits for the next few weeks so we can see exactly how much change we've seen as a result of the no-fatigue patch. So now you might be asking,
'Well why did you even make this topic? What can I do to help?'
It should be obvious! If you have data that I can use, especially from the EU or KR servers, either the price constants of EB2/QAS or you just want to help me with this project in general, please PM me with your Discord name and we can get in touch. At the same time, if you just have any feedback or ways that we can improve the methodology of the research itself, feel free to leave a comment in this topic with your input or any improvements/ideas you have with how we can get better, more consistant values.
Expect a post in the near future one I have more collected info with the link to the Google Docs spreadsheet so you can contribute with your own info. Also, let's please stick to helpful discussion about this actual project itself and no debates about whether the patch is good or bad, a nonissue or Y2K all over again. Please PM me if you want to contribute or help with this project.