Market Analysis: To prove or disprove the fear

After reading a lot and hearing enough of the doomsday predictions from everyone from people to people named after Po-... We'll save that for another time actually. So let's put this issue to rest the only way that we can all agree on: With actual facts, a bit of scientific research, and a community effort that some say is incapable of fixing things ourselves.

So how do we do this? The way those of us with a bit of education and some curiosity do things: Analysis.

Here's the starting hypothesis: I believe the market impacts from the fatigue removal system will be minor at worst, and nonexistant at best.

How do we test this hypothesis? Quite simple, actually. First of all, we'll be using 2 items that are heavily in demand and will give us our constant across servers as well as items that are a bit less consistant just for comparisons sake. EB2(Enchant Booster II) and QAS(Quality Assurance Stamps) will be our 'constants' that we'll be testing with. For additional comparison, the prices of eye items like SoD(Dark Command) or Tiamat/Irina can also be compared.

'But we don't need any research! JP EB2s cost 14m and NA EB2s cost only 2m!' I hear. This is a shallow minded argument, so please get it out of your head if you were thinking it. The value of malek boxes as well as numerous other variables make this a bit more complicated than just using a direct price comparison. So how will we get actual, valid numbers to compare?

We will use a few simple comparisons across all 4 servers. NA, EU, JP, and KR.
-The actual currency obtained from leveling/story questing 1-70, or 1-75. This means only counting the raw currency provided from quests, dungeon runs, and from NPC sellables like coins, statues, malek boxes.
-The 'market' currency obtained from server-specific values of consistent, easy sells like EB2s or QAS obtained from the story/leveling process
-The amount of currency/materials obtained from running a full set of daily, non-boss Tia runs, the 'Horror' and 'Terror' levels on each side of the map

With these values, we can see exactly how much one can expect to make from the leveling process, both in raw currency and and materials obtained. Then it's simply a matter of comparing how many EB2/QAS we can expect to obtain total from both the leveling process or from farming a fairly common set of daily runs. We compare this across all servers, and then we'll have our answer. Is the actual differences between the economies as extreme as some say? Has the introduction of no-fatigue really altered the economy that much?

I've taken the first step in this process by monitoring the economy on our own servers for the past week and putting the info into a spreadsheet, which I'll be making public on Google Docs once we get a bit more info. I'll also be using the Violet release in a couple of days to get the exact values I listed above for the amount of currency/valuables one can expect to make for the three comparisons. At the same time, I'll continue to watch the economy after the patch hits for the next few weeks so we can see exactly how much change we've seen as a result of the no-fatigue patch. So now you might be asking,

'Well why did you even make this topic? What can I do to help?'

It should be obvious! If you have data that I can use, especially from the EU or KR servers, either the price constants of EB2/QAS or you just want to help me with this project in general, please PM me with your Discord name and we can get in touch. At the same time, if you just have any feedback or ways that we can improve the methodology of the research itself, feel free to leave a comment in this topic with your input or any improvements/ideas you have with how we can get better, more consistant values.

Expect a post in the near future one I have more collected info with the link to the Google Docs spreadsheet so you can contribute with your own info. Also, let's please stick to helpful discussion about this actual project itself and no debates about whether the patch is good or bad, a nonissue or Y2K all over again. Please PM me if you want to contribute or help with this project.

«13

Comments

  • You use constants that can be farmed for.
    You don't use constants that are bought with real dosh and sold on black market.
    That alone makes me want to discard that wall of text tbh lad.

  • As Gelezis stated you should be using somethat that isn't obtainable with EMP. As far as the malek boxes go, they are a bit harder to obtain on JP even if they don't have the nerfs. Thirdly there are 5 serveres, you forgot about Indonesia.

  • @VitharBlackwood said:
    As Gelezis stated you should be using somethat that isn't obtainable with EMP. As far as the malek boxes go, they are a bit harder to obtain on JP even if they don't have the nerfs. Thirdly there are 5 serveres, you forgot about Indonesia.

    Do you even CN bro :>
    That said I don't even want to touch it with a ten foot pole (+20, SS tunes...) so we can disregard it I guess.

  • @randomname101 said:

    @VitharBlackwood said:
    As Gelezis stated you should be using somethat that isn't obtainable with EMP. As far as the malek boxes go, they are a bit harder to obtain on JP even if they don't have the nerfs. Thirdly there are 5 serveres, you forgot about Indonesia.

    Do you even CN bro :>
    That said I don't even want to touch it with a ten foot pole (+20, SS tunes...) so we can disregard it I guess.

    The point of your comment was? Seriously tho, I do not get it, what is the point of your comment?

  • That there's a server that you all forgot to mention, CN?

    Anyway, you forget to include in your wall of words, but NA economies are always dogshit, so there is no way it isn't going to spiral out of control. If you think a NA playerbase has any sense of selfcontrol, then all I can do is slow clap.

  • NatoriousNatorious Member
    edited July 2018

    CN market is a whole different story they cant even sell costumes there and all the new enhancing shit they have over there its not even worth mentioning it. And i totally agree with Lih statement about NA economies being a big pile of shits. It doesn't matter what you do to the market people will never have enough

  • Well, he did say you could disregard CN server. His point was just that there was actually another server. :neutral:

  • Oh yeah I spaced out about CN, but as Natorious said, it should be ignored anyway. And yeah all NA servers, regardless of game, have shit economy, I recall at one time when a friend made me switch from EU to NA world for GW2, Legendaries that costed 1500g in EU costed ~5k at NA.

  • MuonMuon Member

    @Gelezis said:
    You use constants that can be farmed for.
    You don't use constants that are bought with real dosh and sold on black market.
    That alone makes me want to discard that wall of text tbh lad.

    I think those cash items were the one being brought up as comparison between future NA and Japan economy by those people who think NA economy will become inflated like that of Japan server when stamina is removed. It is only logical to use them because it was their example. Since you dont want those items (even though they were the one being meme about), what are these "constant" you speak of? So we will be educated what are good parameters for this.

  • This entire arguement is moot because JP mentality and NA mentality going towards the economy are completely different. Just going by how NA economies always, and not normally or anything but ALWAYS, spiral down into ruins, one can come to the conclusion that NA economy will definitely be worse than the JP one. It's not going to be similar or the same, it's going to be worse.

  • MuonMuon Member

    @Lihzakivi said:
    This entire arguement is moot because JP mentality and NA mentality going towards the economy are completely different. Just going by how NA economies always, and not normally or anything but ALWAYS, spiral down into ruins, one can come to the conclusion that NA economy will definitely be worse than the JP one. It's not going to be similar or the same, it's going to be worse.

    The thread intention is to show whether NA dog sht economy(claim) is getting even worst similar to that of Japan when stamina removal comes here. The claim is that, Japan is worst and we are heading there, not NA is actually the worst already than of all servers, it is about whether it is getting worst even further or not. To know if one economy is worst is to calculate the cost of living (price of basic goods) versus average wage (money acquisition). It is not moot because most people are curious if we are heading there, we will also know if Nostradamus is correct when he said Closers NA is going to die and Its EcOnOmy WiLL bE liKE tHAt oF JApan.

  • Thanks to your feedback...(lol), I've definitely taken some of the posts into consideration. Like Hails said above, I don't see the issue with using EB2/QAS as a gauge for measurement, so to speak. But just because there are some people who will cry foul, I've added over a dozen items to the spreadsheet and have measurements by the hour for these prices.

    Since I've been working on this project as well as a website where you can all view the prices of the BM in real time. Though before I would ever release this to the public or do anything this game changing, I would need to discuss it with some of the fine people at EME to make sure I'm not doing anything I shouldn't be. Right now, I'm working on the 'shell' of the site, and before I actually fill it in with the good stuff that will actually display the prices or do anything that would interact with the game, I'd need to send a ticket or discuss this on Discord with anyone in EME who can give me a thums up/down on what is and isn't allowed.

    I'm still looking for someone to help give me price points on the KR servers for comparison, so again, please get in touch if you'd like to dedicated even a little bit of time to make this as complete as possible.

    Just in case any of you are curious: According to the data so far, there has been no inflation, but a very small amount of deflation since the patch hit. Prices for most items has remained fairly consistent despite the introduction of a new character, which has actually caused brief spikes in prices due to a sudden influx of demand.

    The only thing that has had the wildest or most dramatic price alteration(If you can even call it that) is costume pieces for Violet, which have been roughly 35% higher than they were for Harpy about this same time into her own release. The best theory I have for this is nothing remarkable: F2P players who want Violet costumes will cause the prices of her costumes to start higher so now is when we'll see the most demand for her costumes.

    Will keep everyone updated every few days, or if there are any dramatic changes. For now though, we can all keep waiting for the predicted doomsday inflation and bot takeover to hit like so many predicted. :blush:

  • at the very least, wait for at least 1 month before anything.

  • @ArunoSesugawa said:
    at the very least, wait for at least 1 month before anything.

    Oh don't worry, I plan on monitoring this for longer than that. The website is actually something to make this a more permanent project that anyone can view and contribute to for those who don't want to look at a spreadsheet to get the data, and also has the potential to automatically monitor the market, though again this depends on EME's stance toward such things.

  • NA economies always ruin everything. I'd love to be surprised but I'm pretty sure it's just our culture that makes us terrible at markets.

  • MuonMuon Member

    @3LNLHH94FW said:
    Just in case any of you are curious: According to the data so far, there has been no inflation, but a very small amount of deflation since the patch hit. Prices for most items has remained fairly consistent despite the introduction of a new character, which has actually caused brief spikes in prices due to a sudden influx of demand.

    TCP ranking has been stale for 2 weeks already. It maybe the reason why basic cash items arent inflating drastically anymore. Theyre either out of funds or find the current prices too inflated for them to progress their TCP hence a decline on their appetite to buy these items or maybe theyre satisfied already on their current TCP so there is no need to inflate their TCP anymore. Couple that with Violet that made people to spend more, that's why we are constantly seeing supplies now and starting to deflate. Prices are going to deflate even further when the 2nd rare costume arrives here, and people seems focused on Guild ranking instead of consumption, hence greater supplies of these cash items.

  • The economy will not be ruined by normal players.
    There, issue solved.

  • @PrincessChen said:
    NA economies always ruin everything. I'd love to be surprised but I'm pretty sure it's just our culture that makes us terrible at markets.

    It's the MMO economy that has issues. Most of them just do not have proper gold sinks for players to spend their currency on that causes inflation the way it does. The result is that you see stupidly high prices all the time.

    However, you do have to remember that with the removal of fatigue, the average person's income has also increased significantly compared to before.

  • @3LNLHH94FW said:

    @ArunoSesugawa said:
    at the very least, wait for at least 1 month before anything.

    Oh don't worry, I plan on monitoring this for longer than that. The website is actually something to make this a more permanent project that anyone can view and contribute to for those who don't want to look at a spreadsheet to get the data, and also has the potential to automatically monitor the market, though again this depends on EME's stance toward such things.

    That's a very nice and noble cause of you... Good Luck and if you need any help... just ask the forums.

  • @Muon said:

    @3LNLHH94FW said:
    Just in case any of you are curious: According to the data so far, there has been no inflation, but a very small amount of deflation since the patch hit. Prices for most items has remained fairly consistent despite the introduction of a new character, which has actually caused brief spikes in prices due to a sudden influx of demand.


    TCP ranking has been stale for 2 weeks already. It maybe the reason why basic cash items arent inflating drastically anymore. Theyre either out of funds or find the current prices too inflated for them to progress their TCP hence a decline on their appetite to buy these items or maybe theyre satisfied already on their current TCP so there is no need to inflate their TCP anymore. Couple that with Violet that made people to spend more, that's why we are constantly seeing supplies now and starting to deflate. Prices are going to deflate even further when the 2nd rare costume arrives here, and people seems focused on Guild ranking instead of consumption, hence greater supplies of these cash items.

    of course, by law of economics, while one price lowers, another price rises.

    With the Entrance of "Cybernetic" costume on July 31st, I expect the rise of SoD costume to rise as stated on the news page... Cybernetic WILL take over SoD on Synchro Fiber... Accessories wise, not sure... but then again, SoD Accessories has always been a bit inflated so it might stay that way even with coming of Cybernetic.

    I feel people are already stocking up on SoD sets to sell after July 31st so as to overprice an item that's currently not available to get on the market, Give or take a few months SoD sets may rise by twice or maybe even thrice its price. I've been monitoring SoD pieces on BM to see how much it does rise/fall.

    I predict other costumes wont rise/fall in price as much... well this tends to happen to "Fan Favorite" costumes so it's not entirely unexpected, for example, the Cat Costume, after the Washing Maching of the Cat Costume got phased out, I've seen a constant rise of the prise to around 1.5x of it's normal price to around 2.0x at maximum (of course I decided not to include the overly obvious cash grab of 200m for a 2* costume)

    So the ones getting a rise in prise is as my prediction goes, SoD after July 31st.... and the Fan Faves after their phased out... the Royalty costume seems to be a loved costume so I expect that to rise in prise as well should the washing machine phase out.

  • EnctEnct Member
    edited July 2018

    With the Entrance of "Cybernetic" costume on July 31st, I expect the rise of SoD costume to rise

    dark command should drop in price, since people will be selling it to replace with cybernetics

  • ArunoSesugawaArunoSesugawa Member
    edited July 2018

    It's gonna be unobtainable after the Cybernetic Costume, how will that cause it's price to Drop? If anything it would make the price to rise...

    There's a reason why phased out products IRL tends to be sold for higher than normal.

    I'd understand a drop in price if Dark Command would still be obtainable after July 31st but as stated by EME themselves...

    and I'd love to remind you that when they said "opportunities" I expect these opportunities to be hidden behind something most people say "Hyperscam" because as an example, the only way to get Cat Costumes right now is by people selling it... or by the randomly Hyperclock box sale they give out from time to time.

  • @Pokechu said:

    @Enct said:

    With the Entrance of "Cybernetic" costume on July 31st, I expect the rise of SoD costume to rise

    dark command should drop in price, since people will be selling it to replace with cybernetics

    Wrong. The price of Dark Command will rise, because it will no longer be obtainable. Likely for a very long time.

    Not immediately. Enct is right for the short term.

  • EnctEnct Member

    @ArunoSesugawa said:
    I expect these opportunities to be hidden behind something most people say "Hyperscam" because as an example, the only way to get Cat Costumes right now is by people selling it

    They probably will do something like that, but they'll very likely also re-release it the same way korea has

  • @Enct said:

    @ArunoSesugawa said:
    I expect these opportunities to be hidden behind something most people say "Hyperscam" because as an example, the only way to get Cat Costumes right now is by people selling it

    They probably will do something like that, but they'll very likely also re-release it the same way korea has

    I never played KR since i cant read Korean.. how did they re-release it?

  • MuonMuon Member

    @ArunoSesugawa said:

    @Muon said:

    @3LNLHH94FW said:
    Just in case any of you are curious: According to the data so far, there has been no inflation, but a very small amount of deflation since the patch hit. Prices for most items has remained fairly consistent despite the introduction of a new character, which has actually caused brief spikes in prices due to a sudden influx of demand.


    TCP ranking has been stale for 2 weeks already. It maybe the reason why basic cash items arent inflating drastically anymore. Theyre either out of funds or find the current prices too inflated for them to progress their TCP hence a decline on their appetite to buy these items or maybe theyre satisfied already on their current TCP so there is no need to inflate their TCP anymore. Couple that with Violet that made people to spend more, that's why we are constantly seeing supplies now and starting to deflate. Prices are going to deflate even further when the 2nd rare costume arrives here, and people seems focused on Guild ranking instead of consumption, hence greater supplies of these cash items.

    of course, by law of economics, while one price lowers, another price rises.

    With the Entrance of "Cybernetic" costume on July 31st, I expect the rise of SoD costume to rise as stated on the news page... Cybernetic WILL take over SoD on Synchro Fiber... Accessories wise, not sure... but then again, SoD Accessories has always been a bit inflated so it might stay that way even with coming of Cybernetic.

    I feel people are already stocking up on SoD sets to sell after July 31st so as to overprice an item that's currently not available to get on the market, Give or take a few months SoD sets may rise by twice or maybe even thrice its price. I've been monitoring SoD pieces on BM to see how much it does rise/fall.

    I predict other costumes wont rise/fall in price as much... well this tends to happen to "Fan Favorite" costumes so it's not entirely unexpected, for example, the Cat Costume, after the Washing Maching of the Cat Costume got phased out, I've seen a constant rise of the prise to around 1.5x of it's normal price to around 2.0x at maximum (of course I decided not to include the overly obvious cash grab of 200m for a 2* costume)

    So the ones getting a rise in prise is as my prediction goes, SoD after July 31st.... and the Fan Faves after their phased out... the Royalty costume seems to be a loved costume so I expect that to rise in prise as well should the washing machine phase out.

    Im referring to basic cash supplies and are crucial to TCP/making character stronger like ebII, slot mod, fortifiers, - boosters, equalizers, fabrics that are included in deals and bitna cybernetics. Since people are in spending mood, sudden inflation for these items seem very unlikely and may even deflate. So inflation because of fatigue removal dont have any supporting facts. Even if fatigue is removed people wont suddenly get rich because main source of money comes from instances that have limits. People dont have time anymore otherwise you abandon your characters progress or your daily runs. Inshort our daily runs on multiple chars already exceed our 1hr-6hrs of game time. Only special people will play more than 12 hours a day and theyre in minority. Major source of money in circulation still comes from majority of people doing daily runs. But still, lets wait and see if that would be case in the coming months specially right now there is someone who would monitor our market.

    About SoD/Cybernetics. I think only small amount of players would actually want SoD from now, only those who go by the looks and they tend to put something on it to change the appearance. So most people will go for the cheaper one because they only wanted the stats. If people cant sell their rare costumes with inflated prices on blackmarket it will fall down until it reach to affordability of most players. I aint going to pay 200m per body part of your SoD if cybernetics only cost below 100m seriously lol.

  • HailsHails Member

    @Muon said:
    I aint going to pay 200m per body part of your SoD if cybernetics only cost below 100m seriously lol.

    Yea but it doesn't mean someone else won't. Especially knowing theres no telling when they'd add the set again. (Actually there is because Dark Command will most likely have another runback for Wolfgang-Soma.) lol

    In the KR version it seems like they just release special synchro fibers that give you the specific set. So we'd most likely get Dark Command only fibers for a limited amount of time for those characters. No idea if you can actually use those specific fibers on the older characters though (I've never researched about it.)

    I know they did something similar recently for Cybernetic stuff and the result is that it's really cheap on the market (though it's normally really cheap because the set is kinda overrated in NA and everyone other there seems to like Zenith and Dark Command.)

    Trying to compare KR's economy to NA's is a bad idea though. In the KR version they give you basically "Handouts" of items like every event. Some items become worth a lot less than in NA because of this. For example someone told me they recently had an event which just gave everyone a free pair of wings (Idk how true this is). Mix that in with the fact that you can craft certain wings for farming raids and this happens:

    Because NA probably won't get as many handouts (and because NA removed fatigue) I honestly don't think wing prices will ever dip below 500mil like this unless something drastic happens like they make them easy to obtain in some EMP bundle.

    An example of that in NA would be Hyperclocked Equalizers being 35-37mil yesterday. This is their price in a few hours after the recent Box deal.

    They're most likely going to stay deflated for the next month because these boxes are going to be around every weekend.

    It doesn't really mean the economy is going to be "fine". Since this deflation is only from the result of people being a bit too impatient and wanting Cybernetics right now and willing to go through horrible RNG boxes for it.

  • MuonMuon Member

    @Hails said: It doesn't really mean the economy is going to be "fine". Since this deflation is only from the result of people being a bit too impatient and wanting Cybernetics right now and willing to go through horrible RNG boxes for it.

    When is this "market is not going to be fine?" When will EBII going to hit 20m per piece?. I actually missed the chat bots now, theyre gone for days already. Im still hoping to see our server being infested with bots like most people predicted.

  • HailsHails Member
    edited July 2018

    @Muon said:

    @Hails said: It doesn't really mean the economy is going to be "fine". Since this deflation is only from the result of people being a bit too impatient and wanting Cybernetics right now and willing to go through horrible RNG boxes for it.

    When is this "market is not going to be fine?" When will EBII going to hit 20m per piece?. I actually missed the chat bots now, theyre gone for days already. Im still hoping to see our server being infested with bots like most people predicted.

    And you expected prices to inflate in a few days? lol

    That's not how it works dude. lol

Sign In or Register to comment.