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Chances of you landing on dragon rider skill for Nightfury

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  • YamazukiYamazuki ✭✭✭✭✭
    Yamazuki wrote: »
    SageWindu wrote: »
    Now... as I said, I know not of the finer machinations behind the loot boxes, so all that up there could be complete hogwash.

    ...well, at the very least, I don't think the four mystery boxes actually do anything concrete other than being a sort of visual trick to make people feel like they have some say in the matter. To actually program it such that they "really" do anything would be way more work than its worth technically. Most likely, whatever box you click, it's still just a random roll.

    That being said, I think most evidence gathered over time suggests that the odds of most lootboxes are somewhere around the 3% range, and of course it's unbound so you could do much worse (or better). So I don't think your overall conclusion is so far off. The odds for these dragons may be slightly higher than 3% given the price, but it's not going to be a very high chance, and there are no guarantees. (If you look at other games that use "gacha" like this where they list the rates, the prize rate tends to be somewhere between 2% to 4%, so the rates here actually aren't so unusual.)

    Selecting the boxes is to slow people down due to gambling issues.

    Maybe, but I think you could also argue that the selection process also increases people's gambling tendencies because they feel like they can get lucky, and create narratives about which box to choose. (And, well, it's not really that much of a delay.)

    Now, I do think it slows down the rate at which people can open boxes so that people aren't just slamming the server too many times at the same moment (since this is probably pseudorandom at the end of the day). That said, this may not actually be a requirement.

    BHS literally said that themselves back in the Player Conference on June 12 2016.
    Later on Nexon TERA site, they posted GM Note, summarizing/adding on to the questions in their (inclding BHS probably) own words.
    Q : On some boxes we can choose 1, 2, 3, 4. Why was this designed?
    (seriously even I hate this crap, same goes with opening boxes that take like 3 seconds)

    A : As for this part, it was to be considerate for the players. When you open some boxes, the cooldowns have been placed as a preventative measure against gambling addiction which may cause real life problems. We will look into this and revise if possible.

    ...From NEXON’s Official GM Note...
    Q : What’s the point of selecting numbers to open loot boxes?

    A : We need to revise on the policy for opening loot boxes without choosing numbers. As we agree on the inconveniences, we will revise them if there are no problems in policies.

    Thank you again for remembering where I read it from.
  • Lolitaa wrote: »
    wow. first i thought, that's a pretty [filtered] thing to do, but then I thought, well, at least if the prizes are all the same, then I won't feel some feeling like that "i wonder if i chose the 3rd tile instead, I might have got the item"
    as i've always wondered, how "close" i was to getting the item but choosing wrong tile, but if this is the case, then well i won't feel as bad in a way. but i suppose this goes the same for mwa boxes. that is, if this is true.

    Might be. Might not. No one but the developers with access to the source code can really prove either way, but if it makes you feel better to tell yourself that that's how it works, then all the more power to you. Either way you're gambling with an RNG machine, so it's all the same in the end.
  • LolitaaLolitaa ✭✭✭
    Lolitaa wrote: »
    wow. first i thought, that's a pretty [filtered] thing to do, but then I thought, well, at least if the prizes are all the same, then I won't feel some feeling like that "i wonder if i chose the 3rd tile instead, I might have got the item"
    as i've always wondered, how "close" i was to getting the item but choosing wrong tile, but if this is the case, then well i won't feel as bad in a way. but i suppose this goes the same for mwa boxes. that is, if this is true.

    Might be. Might not. No one but the developers with access to the source code can really prove either way, but if it makes you feel better to tell yourself that that's how it works, then all the more power to you. Either way you're gambling with an RNG machine, so it's all the same in the end.

    yeah, i agree. but anyway i don't bother with loot boxes. i just can't afford to waste so much money like that.
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